Trajectories of Justice Involved Youth: Changing Risk and Protective Factors for Violence

Forensic interventions aim to mitigate risk, yet research on change measured through repeated risk assessment is scarce, particularly regarding protective factors. This study examined changes in risk and protective factors during intervention and the impact of change on violent recidivism. Trajectories of 175 male justice involved youth with a history of violence were modeled using multilevel mixture modelling. Findings reveal that youths abstaining from violence displayed fewer risk factors and more protective factors at discharge. Assessments at discharge predicted recidivism. Change scores on several SAVRY/SAPROF-YV subscales over time demonstrated incremental predictive validity above and beyond assessments at discharge, emphasizing the necessity of personalized interventions and considering individual change alongside one’s overall risk level to inform more effective interventions. These insights advocate for balanced approaches informed by repeated assessments encompassing both risk and protective factors.