Temporal stability of pathological scratchcard gambling among adult scratchcard buyers two years later

AIMS: To estimate the 2-year cumulative incidence of pathological scratchcard gambling (PSG) among a representative sample of high-risk scratchcard buyers, to assess the 2-year temporal stability of PSG and scratchcard-related problems and to estimate the adjusted 1-year prevalence for PSG taking into account the temporal dynamics of this diagnosis. DESIGN: A prospective study with two assessments was applied to a non-proportional stratified random sample of 12,222 adult scratchcard buyers in the Netherlands. A cost-effective design was used and only those scratchcard buyers (n=201) who had already experienced some scratchcard-related problems at initial assessment were followed-up 2 years later. PARTICIPANTS: Two independent cohorts of buyers with scratchcard-related problems were followed-up: a cohort of 173 potential problematic scratchcard gamblers (PPSG) at increased risk for PSG and a cohort of 28 pathological scratchcard gamblers. Incidence and prevalence estimates were calculated for the total sample of adult scratchcard buyers and for the Dutch adult population. FINDINGS: Of the PPSG group 6.72% (95% CI 2.30-8.90%) became addicted to scratchcards during the 2-year period. The 2-year cumulative incidence of PSG among Dutch adult scratchcard players was 0.24% (95% CI 0.16-0.34%). The stability of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 4th edition (DSM-IV) diagnosis of PSG ranged from 11.1% to 42.9%, depending on whether or not those lost to follow-up were considered to be cases of PSG. Taking into account the dynamics of this disorder, using the most conservative assumption, the adjusted 1-year prevalence of PSG for the total sample of adult scratchcard buyers was 0.33% (95% CI 0.23-0.45%). CONCLUSIONS: PSG proves to be a rare phenomenon among adult scratchcard buyers in the Netherlands. Both incidence and prevalence of the DSM-IV diagnosis PSG were low. Stability of the DSM-IV diagnosis PSG, DSM-IV criteria and South Oaks Gambling Screening-S (SOGS-S) problems were low. Prevalence was stable over the time because incidence and recovery rates were very similar