Monocyte Distribution Width as a predictor of community acquired sepsis in patients prospectively enrolled at the Emergency Department

Background: Monocyte Distribution Width (MDW), a simple cellular marker of innate monocyte activation, can be used for the early recognition of sepsis. We performed an observational prospective monocentric study to assess the predictive role of MDW in detecting sepsis in a sample of consecutive patients presenting at the Emergency Department. Methods: Prospective observational study using demographic and clinical characteristics, past medical history and other laboratory measurements to predict confirmed sepsis using multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 2724 patients were included in the study, of which 272 (10%) had sepsis or septic shock. After adjusting for known and potential risk factors, logistic regression found the following independent predictors of sepsis: SIRS equal to 1 (OR: 2.32, 1.16–4.89) and 2 or more (OR: 27.8, 14.8–56.4), MDW > 22 (OR: 3.73, 2.46–5.70), smoking (OR: 3.0, 1.22–7.31), end stage renal function (OR: 2.3, 1.25–4.22), neurodegenerative disease (OR: 2.2, 1.31–3.68), Neutrophils ≥ 8.9 × 10³/µL (OR: 2.73, 1.82–4.11), Lymphocytes < 1.3 × 10³/µL (OR: 1.72, 1.17–2.53) and CRP ≥ 19.1 mg/L (OR: 2.57, 1.63–4.08). A risk score derived from predictive models achieved high accuracy by using an optimal threshold (AUC: 95%; 93–97%). Conclusions: The study suggests that incorporating MDW in the clinical decision process may improve the early identification of sepsis, with minimal additional effort on the standard procedures adopted during emergency care.