Marker genes for circulating tumour cells predict survival in metastasized breast cancer patients

We investigated the prognostic significance of circulating breast cancer cells in peripheral blood detected by quantitative RT-PCR of marker genes in patients with advanced breast cancer. Blood samples from 94 breast cancer patients with metastatic disease (MI) were examined for circulating tumour cells by studying the mRNA expression of CK19, p 1 B, PS2 and EGP2 by real-time PCR. Using a score function, developed for predicting circulating tumour cells by quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), the four expression levels were combined into a single discnminant value. Tumour cells were present in 24 out of 94 (31%) of the patients. In 77% (72 out of 94) of the patients distant metastatic disease was localised in the bone. In 36% (26 out of 72) of the patients with bone metastases at the time of blood sampling, a positive QDA for the four genes was found, in contrast to only 14% (three out of 22) without bone involvement. Overall survival rates by Kaplan-Meier revealed no prognostic effect for the presence of bone metastases (P = 0.93). However, patients with a positive QDA value did have a progression-free survival at 1 year of 3% and overall survival at 2 years of 17%, against 22 and 36% for patients with a negative QDA value (P = 0.015 and 0.0053, respectively). Breast cancer patients with metastatic disease have a significantly worse progression-free and overall survival when circulating tumour cells can be detected in their peripheral blood. © 2003 Cancer Research UK.