Impact of coronavirus disease 2019-related clinic closures on HIV incidence in young adult MSM and transgender women in Kenya

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic had on risk of HIV acquisition in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the impact of COVID-19-related clinic closures on HIV incidence in a cohort of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women in Kenya. METHODS: MSM and transgender women enrolled in a prospective, multicentre cohort study were followed quarterly for HIV testing, behaviour assessments, and risk. We estimated the HIV incidence rate and its 95% credible intervals (CrI) among participants who were HIV-negative before COVID-19-related clinic closure, comparing incidence rate and risk factors associated with HIV acquisition before vs. after clinic reopening, using a Bayesian Poisson model with weakly informative priors. RESULTS: A total of 690 (87%) participants returned for follow-up after clinic reopening (total person-years 664.3 during clinic closure and 1013.3 after clinic reopening). HIV incidence rate declined from 2.05/100 person-years (95% CrI = 1.22-3.26, n  = 14) during clinic closures to 0.96/100 person-years (95% CrI = 0.41-2.07, n  = 10) after clinic reopening (IRR = 0.47, 95% CrI = 0.20-1.01). The proportion of participants reporting hazardous alcohol use and several sexual risk behaviours was higher during clinic closures than after clinic reopening. In multivariable analysis adjusting for study site and participant characteristics, HIV incidence was lower after clinic reopening (IRR 0.57, 95% CrI = 0.23-1.33). Independent risk factors for HIV acquisition included receptive anal intercourse (IRR 1.94, 95% CrI = 0.88-4.80) and perceived risk of HIV (IRR 3.03, 95% CRI = 1.40-6.24). CONCLUSION: HIV incidence during COVID-19-related clinic closures was moderately increased and reduced after COVID-19 restrictions were eased. Ensuring access to services for key populations is important during public health emergencies.