Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for the prognosis of sick leave due to low back pain (LBP). METHODS: This is a cohort study with 103 employees sick-listed due to non-specific LBP and spinal disc herniation. A prediction model was developed based on questionnaire data and registered sick leave data with follow up of 180 days. RESULTS: At follow up 31 (30.1%) employees were still sick-listed due to LBP. Forward selection procedure resulted in a model with: catastrophizing, musculoskeletal work load, and disability. The explained variance was 27.3%, calibration was adequate and discrimination was fair with area under the ROC-curve (AUC) = 0.761 (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.755-0.770). CONCLUSION: The prediction model of this study can adequately predict LBP sick leave after 180 days and could be used for employees sick listed due LBP.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1065-1071 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Journal of occupational and environmental medicine / American College of Occupational and Environmental Medicine |
| Volume | 61 |
| Issue number | 12 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2019 |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
Keywords
- absenteeism
- low back pain
- prediction models
- prognostic research
- return to work
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