Alcohol consumption and symptoms as predictors for relapse of DSM-5 alcohol use disorder

Alcohol consumption levels and alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms may serve as easily quantifiable markers for AUD relapse after remission and might help prevention workers identify at-risk individuals. We investigated the predictive value of alcohol consumption and AUD symptoms on relapse. Data are from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2). We selected 506 people in ≥12-month DSM-5 AUD remission at baseline and assessed their status at 3-year follow-up. AUD symptoms and drinking patterns were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Time since remission was assessed retrospectively at baseline and ranged from 1 to 48 years. Predictors for relapse were examined using Cox regression analysis. Cumulative AUD relapse rate was 5.6% at 5 years, 9.1% at 10 years and 12.0% at 20 years. Relapse was predicted by both medium (15-28/22-42 drinks weekly for women/men) and high (≥29/43) past alcohol intake, 6+ lifetime AUD symptoms, 'impaired control over use', and at-risk (≥8/15) current intake. The risk of relapse was especially high when medium or high past intake or 6+ lifetime symptoms coincided with current at-risk drinking. Only a minority of people in DSM-5 AUD remission relapsed, but the risk of relapse increased substantially with the presence of at least one of the risk factors. Moreover, at-risk current drinking coupled with other risk factors substantially increased the likelihood of relapse. Therefore, current drinking may provide an adequate reference point for relapse prevention