A Comparison of Globally Applied Prognostic Risk Groups and the Prevalence of Metastatic Disease on Prostate-specific Membrane Antigen Positron Emission Tomography in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND: Various risk classification systems (RCSs) are used globally to stratify newly diagnosed patients with prostate cancer (PCa) into prognostic groups. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive value of different prognostic subgroups (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk disease) within the RCSs for detecting metastatic disease on prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) for primary staging, and to assess whether further subdivision of subgroups would be beneficial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients with newly diagnosed PCa, in whom PSMA-PET/CT was performed between 2017 and 2022, were studied retrospectively. Patients were stratified into risk groups based on four RCSs: European Association of Urology, National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN), Cambridge Prognostic Group (CPG), and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The prevalence of metastatic disease on PSMA-PET/CT was compared among the subgroups within the four RCSs. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: In total, 2630 men with newly diagnosed PCa were studied. Any metastatic disease was observed in 35% (931/2630) of patients. Among patients classified as having intermediate- and high-risk disease, the prevalence of metastases ranged from approximately 12% to 46%. Two RCSs further subdivided these groups. According to the NCCN, metastatic disease was observed in 5.8%, 13%, 22%, and 62% for favorable intermediate-, unfavorable intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk PCa, respectively. Regarding the CPG, these values were 6.9%, 13%, 21%, and 60% for the corresponding risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study underlines the importance of nuanced risk stratification, recommending the further subdivision of intermediate- and high-risk disease given the notable variation in the prevalence of metastatic disease. PSMA-PET/CT for primary staging should be reserved for patients with unfavorable intermediate- or higher-risk disease. PATIENT SUMMARY: The use of various risk classification systems in patients with prostate cancer helps identify those at a higher risk of having metastatic disease on prostate-specific membrane antigen positron emission tomography/computed tomography for primary staging.